Sanctions, while primarily aimed at altering political and economic behavior, can also produce unexpected results for sustainable development. These unintended consequences often arise from shifts in trade patterns, energy consumption, and environmental standards. For instance, as countries facing sanctions seek alternative trade partners, they may turn to regions with weaker environmental regulations. This can lead to increased pollution and resource depletion. Moreover, sanctions can hinder technological advancements or investments in green energy, especially if they disrupt access to renewable technologies or clean energy sources.
The environmental impact of sanctions
When sanctions were imposed on Russia due to the war in Ukraine, the immediate focus was on their economic and political impact. However, one often overlooked consequence has been their effect on the environment. A recent study published in Communications Earth & Environment reveals that restrictions on energy trade have caused a shift in global pollution patterns, with unintended consequences for carbon emissions worldwide.
Here are some key takeaways from the study:
- Global CO2 emissions have decreased, but only slightly—by 0.03–0.07%.
- In Europe, carbon dioxide emissions dropped by 1.1–1.3%.
- In Russia, however, emissions increased by 22–30 million tons. The decline in exports led to an increase in domestic consumption of energy resources.
The study also noted an increase in CO2 emissions in China, Central Asia, Africa, and Central America. This can be attributed to two factors. First, Russia supplies energy to many of these regions at lower costs, particularly to China, where rising production has been linked to higher pollution. Second, Europe began importing oil and gas from regions with less stringent environmental standards, resulting in higher emissions due to increased demand.
Source: International trade sanctions imposed due to the Russia-Ukraine war
Russia’s CO₂ emission policy and future projections
Sanctions have also influenced Russian policy regarding CO₂ emissions. Russia has no intention of forcing the decarbonization of its economy, and CO₂ emissions are expected to continue growing. Although recent events, sanctions, and trends have strongly suggested this outcome, it has now been officially recorded in Russia’s report on transparency to the UNFCCC.
This means that greenhouse gas emissions in Russia are expected to steadily increase through 2040, even when accounting for absorption by ecosystems such as forests and wetlands. The only scenario in which Russia’s emissions would decrease is labeled “with additional measures”. However this is deemed economically impractical under current conditions.
The other two scenarios are:
- Pessimistic “no measures”. This involves the rollback of climate regulations and the abolition of previously implemented measures.
- Realistic “with measures”. This reflects Russia’s current approach, which focuses on the gradual introduction of technologies to reduce emissions and improve energy efficiency.
Both scenarios do not involve a reduction in emissions. In the “no measures” scenario, emissions will grow more quickly, exceeding 2022 levels by more than 37% by 2040. In the “with measures” scenario, the increase would be around 15%.
The “with additional measures” scenario represents a more ambitious development path with faster implementation of low-carbon technologies. However its feasibility is questioned due to external economic risks, such as intense sanctions and limited access to foreign equipment, technologies, and capital markets. As the report states, the implementation of this scenario is considered economically unfeasible under the current conditions.
According to the report, more radical decarbonization “contradicts the achievement of Russia’s NDC (nationally determined contribution) on ensuring sustainable and balanced socio-economic development,” suggesting it could destabilize key systems within the country.
In conclusion, while sanctions against Russia have had significant economic repercussions, they have also led to a redistribution of environmental burdens. Russia is not planning to force the decarbonization of its economy. While Europe has reduced its emissions, these emissions have merely shifted to regions where environmental regulations are less stringent.
