The IEA has released a fresh update on coal, and the numbers are remarkable: in 2026, the world is expected to burn a record 8.94 billion tonnes of coal, 1.2% more than last year’s record. Just nine months ago, the agency was forecasting a decline.
It is worth remembering that exactly five years ago, in Glasgow, almost every country in the world solemnly agreed to “phase down” coal-fired power generation. Formally, no one has backed away from those words yet.
The war with Iran is partly to blame. Coal does not pass through the Strait of Hormuz at all, but LNG does: before the war, roughly one-fifth of global LNG trade passed through the strait. With the waterway effectively closed, gas prices have surged, and Europe, China, Japan, and South Korea have simply ramped up their coal-fired power plants.
The second factor is even more striking: El Niño. Heat drives up demand for air conditioning while simultaneously reducing water availability for hydropower. The result is a vicious cycle: climate change increases demand for measures that, in turn, drive climate change even further.
Meanwhile, in the United States—where the administration has been among the loudest advocates of reviving the coal industry and has even moved to prevent old plants from being shut down—coal consumption is expected to fall by 7%. Domestic gas is simply cheaper.
So, for now, the planet’s most powerful climate regulator may be the price of gas.
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