A new commentary published in Nature argues that the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C global warming target may no longer be the most effective benchmark for tracking climate progress. The discussion follows earlier remarks by UN Secretary-General António Guterres, who acknowledged in late 2025 that the world is unlikely to meet the original temperature goal.
Instead, the authors propose a new indicator focused on the pace of the clean energy transition — defined as the growth rate of clean energy minus the growth rate of total energy demand. According to the analysis, today’s energy landscape differs significantly from that of 2015, with renewable energy expansion and decarbonisation efforts accelerating across many regions.
The paper suggests that climate policy in the coming years should prioritise speeding up the shift toward low-carbon energy systems. The researchers estimate that the global clean energy transition rate increased from about 3.4% between 2014 and 2019 to roughly 5.7% in 2024. In the first three quarters of 2025, growth in clean electricity generation reportedly exceeded growth in overall energy demand for the first time, indicating a gradual displacement of fossil fuels.
Maintaining or increasing this pace will be essential, the authors argue, if the global economy is to phase out fossil fuel dependence by mid-century.
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